To keep myself from worrying too much about our embryo gestating over a thousand miles away, I went on a mission today to calculate its chances of survival. (I know that may sound grim to some, but I respond well to statistics; unlike Han Solo, I need to know the odds.)

It is true that we have passed the largest hurdle – successful implantation of the blastocyst on the uterine wall. The chance of a failed IVF cycle was 20%. Since a blood test confirmed the pregnancy last week, the chance of miscarriage has fallen to 10%.

As previously mentioned, the pregnancy isn’t considered “viable” until 6-weeks after fertilization. If we make it past that stage, chance of miscarriage will fall to 2.5%. We probably won’t announce the pregnancy to the general population until after the first trimester. At that time, the chance of miscarriage or still-birth will have fallen to 1%.

I’m generally reassured by these odds. I’ll feel a lot better in three weeks, though.

(The source for these statistics was www.americanpregnancy.org and www.pregnancycharts.org . I tried to take into account B.’s age and the fact that she has had successful pregnancies, with no history of miscarriage.)